潜在的干旱会影响价格和营销计划
最近的 U.S. 干旱监测, prepared by the National 干旱 Mitigation Center at the University of Nebraska, 显示北达科他州, most of South Dakota and northwestern Minnesota are experiencing some level of 干旱 conditions. 鉴于2020-21年期末库存紧张, the grain markets will be watching 干旱 conditions and weather forecasts more closely than normal this year.
然而, I am concerned that the information provided by the 干旱监测 maps is being misinterpreted. The 干旱 Mitigation Center uses a color-coded 干旱 category rating ranging from D0 to D4. Table 1 summarizes some of the key measurement criteria used to define each category.
A rather simplistic way to view the 干旱 categories is to consider how deep the 干旱 has reached within the soil profile. 当干旱从D1类转移到D2或D3类, 干旱状况从地表转移到更深的土层.
The critical questions for crop yields are how much moisture is available within the root zone, 温度, 降雨的时机与作物的需水量有关. 干旱条件并不总是导致产量急剧下降, but well-timed rains and favorable 温度 are needed to maintain yield potential. This is especially true during plant flowering and seed development, when plant water use is high.
Localized 干旱 conditions also can create problems for developing or adjusting farm-level marketing plans. The worst situation for net farm income is to have farm-level yields that are just above crop insurance guarantees, 再加上国家层面高于平均水平的产量, 这导致整体市场价格下降.
The temptation is to think that because you have 干旱 conditions on your farm, 各国的价格应该会有所反应，走高. In reality, significant 干旱 conditions must impact a large enough area
提高对总供应量的担忧.
例如，基于 2021年3月23日.S. 美国农业部.S. 农业干旱监测, 约占玉米产量的20%, 占大豆产量的18%, 24% of winter wheat production and 78% of spring wheat production are experiencing 干旱 conditions.
Let’s look at the potential prices response to 干旱 conditions by comparing soybeans and spring wheat. Approximately 18% of potential soybean production is experiencing 干旱 conditions. 然而, 预计大豆库存量与利用量之比, 期末存货除以总使用量, 2020-21年的营销年是2年.6%，与2008-09年创下的历史新低持平.
Soybean prices likely will be very sensitive to spring and summer weather forecasts. If 干旱 conditions spread and more key productions regions are impacted, 很少有蒲式耳的库存可以抵消产量的下降.
In contrast, the spring wheat market is evaluating the opposite situation. The 2020-21 marketing year stocks-to-use ratio is 42%, which is above average. But approximately 78% of the potential production is experiencing 干旱 conditions.
The odds of below-average yields are strong because of the dry soil conditions, but last year’s large inventories can help compensate for lower production this year. The spring wheat markets will be watching weather conditions very closely, but extended dry conditions may need to occur before prices will respond to production concerns.
Local 干旱 conditions can make developing a marketing plan very difficult. 早春时节，新作物的市场价格往往很高, 试图影响农民的种植决定. 然而, farm managers are reluctant to forward contract for harvest delivery because they don’t know how many bushels can be produced. 农场管理者努力平衡生产风险, 或者更低的收益率, 防范价格风险, 或者更低的价格.
One approach used to balance these risks is to divide your marketing plan into three time periods: preplant, 仲夏和收获后. The amount of grain priced during each of these periods can change from year to year.
例如, 考虑到北达科他州今天的干旱状况, the amount of grain priced during the preplant window may be lower than normal (for example, 占预期产量的15%至25%). 在仲夏可以进行额外的销售, when you can more accurately estimate yield potential and have more information about national production estimates (for example, 在6月或7月加价20%至30%). The remaining production can be priced after harvest, when final yields and quality are known.
再一次, the amount of grain priced and price targets for each of these three periods can be adjusted from year to year, 视天气和市场情况而定, 并且可能因作物而改变.
-Frayne Olson, NDSU推广作物经济学家/营销专家
